Missouri State
Missouri State University · 2024 · MVFC
Missouri State carried a -11.6 efficiency rating. They passed the ball on 66% of offensive plays with a 131st-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 34% of plays with a 134th-ranked rushing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
No projection.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Montana | Big Sky | — | L 24–29 | -4.2 | 0% | -14.3 | Q4 |
| 2 | @ Ball State | Mid-American | — | L 34–42 | +4.2 | 0% | -25.9 | Q4 |
| 3 | vs Lindenwood | Big South-OVC | — | W 28–14 | +17.7 | 100% | -6.6 | Q4 |
| 4 | @ UT Martin | Big South-OVC | — | W 31–24 | -3.5 | 100% | -1.3 | Q4 |
| 5 | vs Youngstown State | MVFC | — | W 38–31 | +16.2 | 100% | -22.4 | Q4 |
| 7 | @ Illinois State | MVFC | — | W 41–7 | -0.2 | 100% | 26.3 | Q4 |
| 8 | vs Indiana State | MVFC | — | W 46–21 | +22.4 | 100% | -10.4 | Q4 |
| 9 | @ Northern Iowa | MVFC | — | W 49–42 | +16.7 | 100% | -21.2 | Q4 |
| 10 | vs Southern Illinois | MVFC | — | W 38–17 | +12.8 | 100% | -5.3 | Q4 |
| 11 | @ Murray State | MVFC | — | W 59–31 | +20.8 | 100% | -8.1 | Q4 |
| 12 | @ North Dakota State | MVFC | — | L 21–59 | -24.6 | 0% | -21.7 | Q4 |
| 13 | vs South Dakota State | MVFC | — | L 9–45 | -18.9 | 0% | -29.5 | Q4 |
12 played · 8-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Missouri State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.